News

Egypt may very well be going through the last historical moments preceding its fall into the grip of the forces of Political Islam. These may also be the last days before the Freedom and Justice Party- the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist Al-Nour Party, established only a few months  ago - accedes to power. These fears surface in the aftermath of the first phase of the parliamentary elections- uncontestedly one of the most fair and popular elections in the entirety of the Egyptian political history despite predictions indicating that they were difficult to hold in the first place.  After the overthrow of  the Dr Sharaf Cabinet, Ganzouri was appointed to form a new government following a wave of  violent political unrest that culminated in the events of the 19th, 20th, 21st and 22nd of past November, a.k.a. the second wave of the Egyptian Revolution- a repetion of the same old Revolution scenes that brought to memory the early days of the January 25th Revolution. Despite the violations and manipulations tarnishing those elections, the extent thereof remains quite limited that they do not affect the results of the elections,  of which the rate of participation in the the first phase surpassed 62%. It is an unprecedented rate when compared to participation in former years under the Mubarak regime never overcoming – at best- 25%.


The results of the first phase reflected a clear predominance of the Islamist forces. The Muslim Brothererhood gathered approximately 40% of the votes and the Al-Nour Salafist party that includes under its umbrella such leaders calling for the demolition of the pharaonic statues- the embodiment of a pagan civilisation- in an emulation of the Taliban model in Afghanistan, gained 25% of the votes, whereas the main civil party in this political game has barely managed to secure but a limited number of votes. The Egyptian Bloc Alliance of the Free Egyptians party and the Egyptian Social Democratic parties got 15 %, the Wafd party of civil tendencies received 10% and finally other marginal political forces, a number of independent candidates in addition to parties stemming from the ruling party under the former regime snatched the remainder of the votes. Indications suggest the possibility of Islamist forces capitalizing on their electoral gains during the 2nd and 3rd phases of the elections that are to take place subsequently within the next few days. It is moreso, since the upcoming two phases constitute an electoral centre of gravity for the proponents of Islamist currents in the Delta and Upper Egypt contrary to the first phase the included that governerates of Cairo and Alexandria. The latter two were considered to be strongholds of the civil forces being urban centres of high social, cultural and economic levels.


Despite the absence of any confirmation as to the possibility of forming an alliance within the Parliament between the Brotherhood and the Salafist party to guarantee an absolute majority inside the People’s Assembly thus allowing them  full control over draft laws and political agenda, even worse, granting them full rein to draft the Constitution of  the second Republic, all signs eminating from both parties tilt towards an alliance rather than a confrontation between the two. Such an eventuality will only serve their rivals in parliament, i.e. civil currents.


The obsession of Islamists taking over the political life in Egypt has now become a fact. It is  a certainty that March next, the date to witness the first joint meeting of the People’s Assembly and the Shura Council to form the Constitutional assembly tasked with drafting the new Constitution shall be a moment in history, an unforgetable one lingering in the memory of both Islamists and civil currents. It shall be considered to be a declaration of victory for the islamist forces. They have been flirting with the idea of assuming power for almost eighty years now. Though contrary to the former, it would be a nightmare coming true for the civil currents. Over the past half a century, they have been haunted by the ghost of islamists coming into power.


A few more days, perhaps weeks, before Egypt begins a new era where islamists take up the front of the political stage and likely remain there for a long time to come. Though, still too early to judge the islamists’ attempt at ruling Egypt- islamists being only a stone’s throw away, perhaps closer, from realizing their dream-none the less, preliminary messages and indicators bode no good for the upcoming period. On one hand, the Brotherhood spends its nights and days preaching of the possibility of repeating the Turkish model- one that is highly appealing to and favoured by the West.  On the other hand, it turns against Rajab Tayeb Erdogan, the Turkish President, a few months back during a historical visit to post Revolution Cairo, merely because he spoke of the positive aspects of secularism and the nature of a modern State role. This followed an initially hearty reception at the outset of the visit. This in no way insinuates that there is true will to emulate an open and flexible islamic experience. Quite the contrary, it is foreseen that as soon as  an fundamentalist arm of power assumes office in Egypt, i. e.  the Salafist and Brotherhood currents, the latter currently marketing itself both locally and internationally as being the more moderate of the two, the general climate shall inevitably turn towards fundamentalism. It is expected that both islamist parties shall strive to win over the layman by appealing to their religious feelings via further stringency in their political visions. Needless to say, the effects of islamists assuming power in Egypt shall not keep to the Egyptian borders. It is rather feared that it shall draw the entire region into a dark tunnel with no light at the end of it. This is more true when coupled with islamists taking hold of the scene in Tunisia and the rise of their star in Libya amidst expectations of the Arab Spring turning into an Islamist one.


To follow a dreamers rationale, the future may hold in the end new  unreckoned with facts and positive aspects especially since Egypt constantly experiences rapid dynamic movements. This may be cause enough to change pessimistic forecasts for Egypt and the region. Nevertheless, those expextations remain subject to the extent of which new positive facts develop on the ground. While awaiting such a time, the question remains: will the middle class youth of Egypt that rose up against the Mubarak regime over a year ago settle for a religious dictatorship- whose ambitions are known to none but God- in the stead of the Mubarak one? And those revolutionaries who numbered no Brothers nor Salafists in their ranks during the days marking the birth of the Revolution, were they at fault? The Brotherhood remained perplexed as to taking part in it or refraining there from. Even worse, the Salafist leadership declared time and again its abstinence, substantiating its stance with religious texts that prohibit the idea of rising up against the ruler. This has drawn the disdain of the civil elite. Lately, the saying that“ the islamists want to reap the fruits of a revolution they were never part of “ has been echoing  in the Egyptian street, in an attempt to dissuade voters from voting in favour of the islamist currents candidates. However, this and other slogans were not enough to bear the aspired results among the public of voters.


Will the military establishment turn a blind eye to the attempts of the islamist currents to monopolize power? It is as if all political options and proposed scenarios lead to hell: Egypt can have its pick of dictatorships: the military, the Brotherhood or Mubarak... In the end, alone stand the hope and the dream that these may not be the last remaining days before Cairo falls into the clutches of a religious rule that could bring to the ground both Egypt’s and the entire region’s stability, nor be caught up in the web of a tyrannical military one that will destroy what is left of the dreams of the second Republic.


by Muhammad Maher, Cairo

• Website of FNF Cairo